Zenith yesterday released its latest Advertising Expenditure Forecasts report, highlighting that the recovery of the global ad market will continue from the 2020 downturn with 9.1% growth in 2022, after 15.6% growth in 2021. Global adspend will expand by 5.7% in 2023 and 7.4% in 2024, with brands looking to leverage more social media, online video, advanced TV, and ecommerce channels, the agency said.

Zenith estimates that global adspend will reach US$705bn in 2021, up from US$634bn in 2019, and will rise to US$873bn by 2024.

Zenith forecasts the fastest growth between 2021 and 2024 to come from Central & Eastern Europe (C&E Europe) and the Middle East & North Africa (MENA), with average annual growth rates of 12.2% and 10.0% respectively. C&E European advertising is being fueled by the rise in productivity and disposable incomes as its economies develop towards maturity, encouraging more brands and product categories to enter the market, Zenith said.

However, Zenith expects the biggest contribution to the growth in ad dollars to come from the US, where adspend is forecast to expand by US$80bn between 2021 and 2024. That represents 48% of the entire growth in global adspend over this period. The next-largest growth will come from China (US$15.8bn, or 9% of the total), the UK (US$6.0bn, or 4%) and Japan (US$5.4bn, or 3%). These are the world’s four largest ad markets, and make up in scale what they may lack in speed.

Zenith predicts social media will be the fastest-growing channel between 2021 and 2024, with an average annual growth rate of 14.8%, closely followed by online video at 14.0%. Paid search will grow by 9.8% a year, primarily driven by retailer media, and out-of-home will enjoy solid 7.4% annual growth as foot and vehicle traffic return to normal. Radio and television will grow marginally, by 2.2% and 1.4% respectively, while print declines by 4.7%.

Zenith predicts social media will be the fastest-growing channel between 2021 and 2024, with an average annual growth rate of 14.8%, closely followed by online video at 14.0%. Paid search will grow by 9.8% a year, primarily driven by retailer media, and out-of-home will enjoy solid 7.4% annual growth as foot and vehicle traffic return to normal. Radio and television will grow marginally, by 2.2% and 1.4% respectively, while print declines by 4.7%.

Linear television advertising remains the frequent default route to mass-audience brand awareness, despite years of audience losses to online video across multiple platforms. Brands’ reliance on television, coupled with falling supply, is stimulating rapid media inflation, which will continue even after the comparison with 2020 has passed. Zenith forecasts the cost of television advertising to rise by 11% in 2022, compared to 4% for out-of-home, 3% for digital display, 2% for radio and zero for print. The widening disparity in prices means brands will have to rethink their budget allocation, and ensure they’re reaching audiences in the right place and at the right price.

The rise of advanced TV and the delivery of streaming video to television sets and mean online video advertising has more impact than ever. Combined with the continued rise of digital audiences, this will drive online video adspend to increase from US$62bn in 2021 to US$91bn in 2024, when it exceeds 50% of this size of television for the first time. Linear television adspend will rise from US$171bn to US$178bn over the same period.

“As consumers rely ever more on digital technology to connect and entertain them, and to inspire and fulfill their purchases, advertising is playing a greater role in driving sales and brand growth,” said Jonathan Barnard, Head of Forecasting, Zenith. “Over the next three years we expect the ad market to achieve its highest rate of sustained growth since 2000.”